Most attention should be paid to the study of the

2022-07-31
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Attention should be paid to the study of the impact of the earthquake on China's economy. At present, it is difficult to accurately estimate the economic losses caused by the Wenchuan earthquake. In the face of this sudden huge disaster, on the one hand, we should unite as one and go all out to fight against the earthquake and provide disaster relief. On the other hand, we should also pay attention to the study of the impact of the earthquake on China's economic development, with rich results, so as to prepare for a rainy day, take effective measures as soon as possible, and minimize the negative impact of the earthquake

we believe that the research on the impact of the earthquake disaster on the economy should focus on the following two aspects

impact on the public psychology

in addition to causing human and economic losses, major natural disasters will have a huge impact on the public psychology. If handled improperly, the negative impact on social stability and subsequent economic development may exceed the natural disasters themselves. Therefore, we should pay attention to the analysis of the negative impact of the earthquake on the public psychology, and take corresponding countermeasures

first, the government timely and objectively announced the latest disaster situation and the specific progress of disaster relief, making fear, gossip and rumors have no place. At the same time, it is also conducive to the international community to better understand the great progress made by the Chinese government in the efficiency and transparency of disaster relief, so as to improve the credibility and international reputation of the Chinese government

second, we should pay attention to the objective reporting of real people who have given their love and even lives in the face of disasters, report the boundless love of people of all ethnic groups and compatriots at home and abroad for the affected people in Sichuan, promote social integrity and enhance national cohesion, which is conducive to post disaster reconstruction and stable economic development

third, we should study the relevant issues that the public is currently concerned about, focus on the aspects in which the public's expectations may change due to the earthquake, and reasonably guide the public's psychological expectations. For example, the earthquake disaster may aggravate people's expectations on food and technology, but it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between technical classification and application classification, so these 20 categories of relatively miscellaneous classification can also be simply summed up as 4 categories of live pigs; The housing mortgage loans in the disaster stricken areas and the loans of the disaster stricken enterprises cannot be repaid on schedule, and so on. It is necessary for relevant departments to analyze the situation in a timely and objective manner, study and adopt effective solutions, and make them public

impact on China's macro economy

the area affected by the earthquake was not as large as the last snow disaster, but the damage of the earthquake was very serious. According to Premier Wen Jiabao's speech on May 15, the scope of the worst hit areas of the Wenchuan earthquake has exceeded 100000 square kilometers, and its intensity and intensity have exceeded that of the Tangshan earthquake. It is the most destructive earthquake with the largest scope since the founding of new China. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze its long-term and short-term impact on China's macro-economy

in the long run, the earthquake disaster will not have a significant impact on the overall development trend of China's economy. Although the earthquake has caused great losses to the economy of the affected areas, especially the economy of Sichuan, it is preliminarily estimated that its impact on China's economy is limited and temporary. The export of Sichuan Province accounts for about 0.6% of the national export, the total industrial output value accounts for 3.7% of the national export, and the GDP accounts for about 4.2% of the national export. From the impact of catastrophic natural disasters on China's economy in recent years, economic activities were greatly affected in the second quarter after the catastrophic floods in 1998 and the second quarter after the outbreak of SARS in 2003. However, investment and economic growth have rebounded significantly after the disaster. Therefore, it is expected that the earthquake will have a negative impact on the economy in the second quarter, but this impact is short-term. The economy will return to normal growth in the third and fourth quarters, and some areas such as investment may rebound in retaliation

in the short term, the earthquake disaster may have a certain impact on China's economy, especially on the current macro-control to curb inflation. First of all, the impact of the earthquake on pork and grain deserves attention. Sichuan is the largest pig breeding base and a major grain producing province in China. Its pig production accounts for 11.6% of the country, and its agricultural and rice production accounts for 6.1% and 7.3% of the country respectively. Although the epicenter of the earthquake was not the main production area of pigs and grain, the earthquake caused the collapse and damage of rural houses and roads, and caused significant property losses to farmers. Its negative impact on pig breeding, grain production and related commodity transportation should be paid attention to. At the same time, the current disaster areas need a lot of food and food, which may cause upward pressure on food and food prices in the short term. Secondly, the disaster area has a huge demand for consumer goods such as medicine, tents and clothing. In addition, the impact of the earthquake on food and food prices will increase the pressure on consumer goods prices

the post disaster reconstruction will be started soon after the life rescue, and the investment scale is expected to be larger than that of the last snow disaster reconstruction. It is estimated that the management will appropriately expand the credit line to support post disaster reconstruction as it did in the last snow disaster. Therefore, the probability of total bank credit expansion this year increases. The total amount of new loans in the first four months of this year has reached 1794.3 billion yuan, nearly 50% of the target set at the beginning of the year that the annual new loans should not exceed 3.6 trillion yuan. The amount of money put into the market is still growing rapidly. At the end of April 2008, the balance of M2 was 42.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.94%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year and 0.65 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year. On this basis, the expansion of credit scale caused by the post disaster reconstruction will undoubtedly pose a greater challenge to controlling inflation

in addition, the demand for building materials, steel and cement for post disaster reconstruction will rise. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on May 9, the ex factory price (PPI) of China's industrial products in April rose by 8.1% year-on-year, a new high in nearly three years since October 2004. The large-scale reconstruction after the disaster will undoubtedly have an upward impact on PPI. Therefore, in the short term, the possibility of PPI increase increases, and the subsequent pressure of CPI rise is increased through the conduction effect

properly cope with the impact of the disaster on prices

we need to further study the impact of the earthquake on China's macro-economy, especially on prices, so as to enhance the foresight and effectiveness of the response measures and minimize the economic "aftershocks" of the earthquake

by analyzing the change range of various components of China's CPI this month, it can be seen that the main factors affecting China's price trend are grain prices and the transmission effect of PPI to CPI. Therefore, in combination with the possible impact of the above earthquake on prices, we can mitigate the impact of the earthquake on prices by focusing on the two "intermediary goals" of "stabilizing food prices" and "controlling the transmission of PPI to CPI", and ultimately achieve the "ultimate goal" of stable and rapid economic development by making a series of controllable oscillation simulations in the experiment

specifically, we should actively and vigorously support post disaster reconstruction, quickly restore local agricultural production, focus on improving people's livelihood in the affected rural areas, create favorable conditions for food production and pig breeding, and do a good job in the upcoming summer grain harvest and purchase; We will continue to increase state financial input in supporting agricultural production, effectively reduce the cost of grain production, and increase farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain; Arrange the production of materials needed for post disaster reconstruction in advance, and stabilize prices by increasing effective supply; Pay close attention to the changes of PPI. In this special period, if necessary, temporarily increase the price control on domestic raw materials, fuels, power and other upstream products, cut off the transmission path from PPI to CPI, and prevent PPI from transmitting to CPI, thus causing overall inflation

in addition, our management can also strictly control the excessive growth of money supply by continuing to increase the statutory deposit reserve ratio and increasing the intensity of open market operation, and strengthen the coordination and cooperation among fiscal policy, monetary policy and industrial policy to prevent excessive price rise. As long as we attach great importance to the study of the relevant impact of the earthquake on China's economy and take effective measures in time, we will be able to minimize the negative impact of the earthquake and achieve the sustained, stable and healthy development of the national economy

the author believes that the research on the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on China's economy should focus on the psychological impact on the public and the impact on the macro-economy. In terms of public psychology, we should take corresponding countermeasures as soon as possible to eliminate its negative effects. In terms of China's macro-economy, although the impact of the earthquake disaster on the overall economic development trend is not significant in the long run, we should carefully analyze its impact on China's price trend in the short term, so as to enhance the foresight and effectiveness of response measures and minimize the economic "aftershocks" of the earthquake. (wujianhuan)

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